FameEX Hot Topics | Bitcoin 2022 Bear Market Correlation Spikes to 98%

Network economist Timothy Peterson’s latest research shows Bitcoin is replicating the 2022 bear market with near-perfect accuracy. After a 36% plunge from its all-time high, BTC has crushed earlier expectations that 2025 would host the bull cycle’s most explosive gains, instead tracing the exact contours of the savage second-half decline seen three years ago.

Peterson’s correlation metrics are striking: daily charts now align at 80%, while monthly candles have reached an astonishing 98% similarity. “2H2025 Bitcoin is the same as 2H2022 Bitcoin,” he posted on X this Saturday. Historical precedent adds to the gloom—every red November since 2013 has been followed by a losing December, albeit usually milder—suggesting more downside may lie ahead before any genuine relief.

Yet the macro backdrop is quietly improving. November’s drawdown hit crypto far harder than equities, but risk sentiment is shifting. The Kobeissi Letter, citing Bloomberg and JPMorgan data, reports U.S. equity funds have pulled in a colossal $900 billion since November 2024, with $450 billion arriving in the last five months alone. All other asset classes combined managed only $100 billion—equities are absorbing more capital than every other category put together.

This tidal wave into stocks signals a clear return of risk-on behavior and reignites hopes for a traditional year-end “Santa Claus rally” that could spill over into correlated assets, including cryptocurrencies. Encouraging early evidence is already visible: recent inflows into U.S. spot Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs indicate the heaviest phase of institutional selling has likely passed. Should equity inflows persist and macro triggers materialize, the eerie 98% bear-market correlation could shatter, opening the door to a dramatic reversal before 2025 closes.

Disclaimer: The information provided in this section is for reference only and does not represent any investment advice or the official views of FameEX.