FameEX Hot Topics | Kevin O’Leary: December Fed Rate Cut Off the Table, Bitcoin Keeps Winning

Kevin O’Leary, the Canadian investor and Shark Tank personality known as “Mr. Wonderful,” has poured cold water on the near-universal market expectation of a Federal Reserve rate cut in December. Speaking Tuesday, he declared that not only does he believe the Fed will hold rates steady, but that such a decision would have virtually no negative effect on Bitcoin’s price trajectory. “I don’t actually think the Fed’s gonna cut in December,” O’Leary said bluntly, adding, “and honestly, it’s not gonna make a difference to Bitcoin.” He stressed that his own portfolio positioning completely ignores the possibility of near-term easing, stating, “I’m not investing as if the Fed is going to cut rates. So I just don’t see it.”

The entrepreneur cited lingering inflation and new trade frictions as the primary reasons the Fed is likely to pause. “There’s a lot of inflation in the system,” he noted, pointing to September’s 3% annual rate—the highest since January—and the bite that incoming tariffs are already taking on input costs. In O’Leary’s view, these pressures make it difficult for the central bank to fulfill its dual mandate of price stability and maximum employment while continuing to ease policy. Despite his skepticism, markets continue to price in aggressive odds of a cut; as of this week, the CME FedWatch Tool shows an 89.2% probability of a December reduction, reflecting widespread belief that lower rates will drive capital into risk assets, including cryptocurrencies.

O’Leary, however, remains relaxed about Bitcoin’s near-term outlook regardless of the Fed’s decision. He believes the flagship cryptocurrency has settled into a stable range and is unlikely to experience sharp declines. “It’s found a level for now,” he observed, forecasting that Bitcoin will “drift within 5% of where it is now, in either direction,” with limited downside risk but also “not a lot of upside catalyst” immediately ahead. His calm assessment stands in contrast to some traders who fear a surprise hawkish hold could trigger a swift sell-off across the crypto market.

Market expectations have whipsawed in recent weeks, underscoring the uncertainty O’Leary highlighted. On November 19, the implied probability of a December cut collapsed to just 33% from roughly 67% earlier in the month. Two days later, dovish comments from New York Fed President John Williams—suggesting cuts could come “in the near term” without reigniting inflation—pushed the odds back to nearly 70%. Bloomberg’s Joe Weisenthal called the swing a “massive increase” driven by the remarks. After the Fed delivered its first two cuts of the cycle in September and November, most investors had assumed easing would continue through the year-end. O’Leary’s contrarian stance—that Bitcoin will remain resilient even if that script changes—offers a notable counterpoint in an otherwise rate-cut-obsessed market.

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