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FameEX Daily Technical Analysis | SVB’s Meltdown Triggers Financial Reform, Echoed by an Optimistic Market

2023-03-29 16:24:35

Yesterday, all major cryptos exhibited price appreciation with fluctuations between 0.87% and 8.17%. BNB, which recently has been affected by the accusation against Binance CEO CZ, caused a market panic, slightly rising 0.87% with the weakest trend. In contrast, XRP kept a strong trend, surging 8.17%. BTC and ETH, two of the leading cryptocurrencies, climbed 1.19% and 3.13%, respectively.

According to the 4-hour trading cycle depicted below, the price has stayed in a narrow consolidation range of $26,508 and $28,868 for over 10 days. The market volume plummeted as investors lowered their enthusiasm for the market. From the perspective of SMAs, the MA7 support tangled with the MA25 support. However, the MA9 continued going up. If BTC continues to maintain its current trend, the short-, medium- and long-term SMAs will officially enter a tangled state in the next few days. Thus, the market may fall into a more chaotic situation.

Overall, the market is slightly favorable to the long trend, while the short- and medium-term trends are not clear. It should be noted whether the price falls below the previous support price of $26,508 and the MA99 support. Therefore, it is recommended to go short at present and enter into further orders when the trend is clear.

Source: TradingView

During yesterday’s trading session, three major U.S. stock indexes experienced drops. The Dow Jones index only fell 0.12%, showing a relatively strong trend. Similarly, the S&P 500 index lost 0.16%. Instead, the Nasdaq index was relatively weak, falling 0.45%. On the contrary, two of the leading cryptos, BTC and ETH, rose 1.19% and 3.13%, respectively.

In terms of data, the Consumer Confidence Index for March was 104.2, compared to the market expectation of 101 and a previously revised value of 103.4. Although this survey covered the week following the SVB’s collapse, consumers remained positive, reflecting a continued strength of the labor market and a slight optimism about the future of the economy.

As to political and economic fields, the House and Senate held the first hearing on the collapse of SVB and Signature Bank. Throughout the hearing, the three major financial regulators revealed their blueprints for the next steps in reform. Michael Barr, the Federal Reserve’s vice chair for supervision, said that the failure of SVB demonstrated the need to strengthen the resilience of the banking system and the need to impose stiffer capital and liquidity standards on banks with assets over $100 billion.

According to the CME's FedWatch tool, traders saw a more than 50% chance of a rate cut in the wake of a 25-basis-point rate hike at the next meeting. However, Baird and other Wall Street analysts believed that the Fed was unlikely to cut interest rates this year, suggesting a misjudged market bet on the rate cuts.

Source: Yahoo! finance

Over the past 24 hours, there has been a total of $33.34 million in long liquidations and $59.81 million in short liquidations, resulting in a net liquidation of $26.47 million. 27,029 traders experienced liquidations in total in the last 24 hours. BTC, ETH, and XRP displayed liquidations of $29.84 million, $20.80 million, and $8.96 million, respectively, ranking the top 3 cryptos in liquidations.

The Fear & Greed index modestly fell to 59, still over the significant threshold of 50. This suggests that the market has become cautious optimism. However, due to the unclear market trend, it is recommended to observe the subsequent trend.

The Bitcoin Ahr999 index remained 0.78, which is above the support level of 0.45 but below that of 1.2. This shows that the short-term trend becomes strong, but the long-term trend is still a bear market. Therefore, It is not recommended to buy the dip in batches. However, purchasing small amounts through dollar-cost averaging (DCA) may be a viable strategy. 

According to the above analysis, despite a fading trend and sentiment in the short run, the overall market favors optimism. Therefore, we recommend periodically buying with a fixed amount and selling them gradually as the market rises.

Source: Coinglass

Disclaimer: FameEX makes no representations on the accuracy or suitability of any official statements made by the exchange regarding the data in this area or any related financial advice.

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