Macro Outlook: The pace of Fed rate cuts may slow, with multiple Fed officials set to speak intensively
Major U.S. economic events this week include:
On Monday, the spotlight will be on Williams, a permanent voting member of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) and President of the New York Fed, who will address monetary policy and the broader economic outlook. He will be joined by Bullard, the President of the St. Louis Fed and a 2025 FOMC voting member, who will delve into the U.S. economic outlook and its relationship to monetary policy.
Tuesday will bring additional commentary, with Harker from the Cleveland Fed, Barkin from the Richmond Fed, and Bostic from the Atlanta Fed all scheduled to speak. These officials will discuss various facets of the U.S. economy, offering differing perspectives on economic conditions and future policy measures. Their remarks could provide valuable clues as to how the Fed is navigating potential risks and opportunities in the domestic economy.
Thursday’s events will be headlined by Daly of the San Francisco Fed, Goolsbee from the Chicago Fed, and Williams again from the New York Fed. Williams will also participate in the fourth annual meeting on the international role of the dollar, adding another layer of significance to his remarks. These speeches will likely focus on the global implications of U.S. monetary policy and its impact on the international financial system.
Finally, Friday will see a series of speeches by Federal Reserve Governors Barr and Bowman, who will offer insights into bank stress tests, a crucial topic given the ongoing discussions around financial stability and regulatory oversight. As the week unfolds, market participants will closely monitor these speeches to gauge the Fed’s stance on inflation, interest rates, and the overall economic trajectory.
The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in October is 91.9%
The CME 'FedWatch' tool shows an 8.1% probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining rates in October, with a 91.9% chance of a 25 basis point cut. In December, the probability of no change is 1%, while the likelihood of a 25 basis point cut is 18.5%, and a 50 basis point cut is 80.5%.
Michael Saylor projects Bitcoin to appreciate at an annual rate of almost 29% over the next two decades
Michael Saylor, in a podcast interview, highlighted Bitcoin’s recent strong performance but pointed out that the market is currently in a consolidation phase. Early investors are cashing out while institutions hold back, awaiting less volatility. Saylor also forecasted a nearly 29% average annual appreciation for Bitcoin over the next 20 years.
Bitcoin to Thrive in the Upcoming Global Financial Shift, Says Analyst
Jordi Visser, a market analyst, forecasts a "fourth turning" reset for the global financial system. As traditional institutions lose public trust, Bitcoin is expected to see growth in both price and adoption. Being a neutral, permissionless global asset, Bitcoin offers an alternative beyond the control of governments and institutions.
Viewpoint: Fed Rate Cuts Set to Propel Bitcoin and Altcoins
Economist Timothy Peterson warned that cryptocurrency investors may be underestimating the Federal Reserve’s potential for rapid interest rate cuts. He predicted that the Fed could make significant policy changes in the next few months, which would likely lead to a notable increase in Bitcoin and altcoin prices within the next 3 to 9 months.
Progress Made on EU Digital Euro, but Issuance Will Take Time
EU finance ministers reached an agreement on the digital euro roadmap at the Copenhagen meeting. The plan must be approved by the European Parliament and is expected to complete legislation by June 2026. However, it may take up to three additional years for official issuance, with concerns over data privacy and financial stability.
Disclaimer: The information provided in this section is for informational purposes only, doesn't represent any investment advice or FameEX's official view.
